The bank expects net interest income in its global wealth management business to decline sequentially by a low-single-digit percentage in Q2.

UBS posted better-than-expected first-quarter net profit, but the Swiss bank warned of an uncertain outlook as US tariffs raise global growth fears even as the market tumult drove up earnings in its trading activity.

Switzerland’s biggest bank reported net profit attributable to shareholders of US$1.7 billion in Q1 2025, down from US$1.8 billion a year earlier, but beating an average estimate of US$1.3 billion in a company-provided poll of analysts.

In its investment banking division, global markets enjoyed a record quarter with revenues up 32 per cent year on year, underpinned by higher client activity in equities and foreign exchange, UBS said.

The outlook was more muted, however, as the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs raised uncertainty. “The prospect of higher tariffs on global trade presents a material risk to global growth and inflation, clouding the interest rate outlook,” UBS said.

UBS expected net interest income in its global wealth management business to decline sequentially by a low-single-digit percentage in the second quarter of 2025 and anticipated a similar decline in its Swiss business.

Continued market uncertainty could delay corporate deals, the bank added.

“With a wide range of possible outcomes, the economic path forward is particularly unpredictable,” UBS said, noting that a likely further period of volatility in markets could prompt investors to put off decisions on strategy and capital allocation.

Trump’s global trade war has sown turmoil in financial markets and raised fears of a recession, threatening to upend a range of industries from manufacturing to retail to banking.