War, oil shock weighing on credit conditions, but offsets cushion impact.

The U.S.-Iran war and its impact on global energy markets have shaken global credit conditions — but the shock hasn’t wrecked global credit, says Fitch Ratings.

In a new report, the rating agency said that the global credit environment has “deteriorated” in the first half of 2026 — primarily due to the war in the Middle East and the accompanying oil supply shock.

Against that backdrop, the outlook for a number of sectors, and asset performance outlooks, shifted to “deteriorating” — indicating that Fitch expects operating and business conditions and asset performance in structured finance sectors, to weaken relative to 2025.

Additionally, macro-credit risks have intensified, it noted.

Weaker credit conditions have also led to ratings downgrades, and an increase in the number of negative rating outlooks for certain sectors and regions, it said.

Yet, despite these negative trends, Fitch also said that the global credit picture remains resilient. Most ratings still have stable outlooks, it said — and, the balance of positive and negative outlooks hasn’t shifted materially.

“In short, the U.S.-Iran war, alongside other major trends and events in the first half, has pressured but not upended our core expectations for global credit this year,” it said.

The war’s economic and financial impact has been tempered by expectations that the oil shock will prove temporary, Fitch said, noting that oil prices are expected to drop once the Strait of Hormuz finally re-opens.

Additionally, the AI investment boom has boosted global trade, “particularly for Asian technology exporters,” supported the growth of U.S. capital expenditure, and bolstered investor sentiment.