As much was delayed or lost in 2025 due to policy volatility, an ICC study estimated.

Real business investment would have grown four times faster last year without surging policy uncertainty, according to an analysis of 10 major economies by the International Chamber of Commerce and Oxford Economics. 

In 2025, an estimated $202bn of total investment was lost or delayed in these 10 geographies, equivalent to 0.2 per cent of 2024 global GDP, the ICC estimates. Policy uncertainty, measured by frequency of articles in leading newspapers related to the economy, policy and uncertainty, rose to its highest ever level in 2025 due to the US’s on-again-off-again tariffs and political instability in other countries.

All 10 economies assessed — namely the US, China, four EU countries, Mexico, Canada, South Korea, India, Japan, Brazil and the UK — secured less investment in 2025 than they would have without surging policy uncertainty. The four EU countries — Germany, Italy, France and Spain — were grouped together in one assessment. Business investment grew year-on-year by 0.4 per cent in 2025, lower than a modelled rate of 1.9 per cent in a counterfactual scenario without so much news about policy uncertainty.

“There is a lack of co-ordination in how governments implement any economic policy and how they communicate that. It has created a lot of uncertainty for business,” says Mélanie Laloum, ICC’s lead economist and co-author of the report.

Three-quarters of over 240 chambers of commerce surveyed by ICC between May and June 2025 cited uncertainty as the main trade-related concern for businesses. This was ahead of changes to tariffs (59 per cent), export and import restrictions (37 per cent) and currency fluctuations (34 per cent).

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has the potential to exaggerate the level of uncertainty, notes Laloum, but this still has a bearing on investment plans. “Executives read the news and incorporate that kind of information, so it still has an impact on those decisions,” she says.