$5.4 trillion mineral investment needed by 2035, say experts


Capital investment of $5.4 trillion will be required to sustain and expand mining and processing facilities across the globe during the 2024-2035 period, a significant increase of $500 billion over the previous decade (2012-2023), said leading industry experts in a partnership with leading industry think tanks.

 The experts in the stated that more than 90% of the mass moved involves coal, iron ore, copper, and gold. And of this total capital, over 70% will be needed for these four commodities, with roughly 75% of it dedicated to sustaining existing assets.

 The steel value chain alone is estimated to require about $1.6 trillion in sustaining capital expenditure.

 For some critical minerals, the mining phase is where most value is generated for countries: 70% of the value generated from cobalt is in mining; 68% for graphite; and 54% for lithium, it added.

 The also pointed out that regions like Asia Pacific, India, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa will require over 40% of total capital investment, reflecting a shift in capital flows to emerging markets.

Production of cathode materials, battery cells, and battery recycling could produce around $800 billion in annual revenue by 2040.

 The Super Region has significant untapped potential in minerals that can drive the global energy transition. However, that capital investment of $5.4 trillion will be required to sustain and expand global mining and processing facilities – nearly the equivalent to the combined GDP of Japan and Spain.

 In the opinion of  insights from internationally recognized advocates for the minerals sector including Mark Cutifani, Chairman of Vale Base Metals, and Dr Michelle Foss, Fellow of Energy at the Baker Institute, as well as leading experts from CRU, Wood Mackenzie, Global AI, and Clareo-DPI.

 In the report they explore the contribution of minerals to society, the value proposition of the sector for supplier countries, resource depletion and the need for significant investment to achieve development and the energy transition, the need for new forms of partnership to unlock funding, how the benefits of mining can be equitably shared with host countries and communities, addressing perceptions of mining that can reduce societal acceptance and hamper investment.

 On building shared value propositions in the mining industries, Mark Cutifani said: “In the end, partnerships for shared, durable value creation and commitment to supporting commercial frameworks can go a long way toward meeting and exceeding key stakeholder expectations.”

Addressing the vital role of collaboration, Principal Consultant at CRU Ionut Lazar said: “Collaboration across sectors is essential to meet global decarbonization targets – it cannot be achieved by a single entity. It is a global, multi-stakeholder challenge that requires strategic collaboration, especially if we want to move at pace and achieve the desired scale.”

 Patrick Barnes, the Head of Metals and Mining Consulting at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Value addition can provide countries with a range of well-known benefits: increased GDP, more fiscal revenue from a larger tax base, increased export earnings from higher-value products, and creation of direct and indirect jobs.”

 “But countries cannot afford to proceed blindly. Their plans have to take into account the real market dynamics, costs and benefits if they want to compete for investment and actually realize value,” he stated.

 For Co-Founder and Board Chair of Development Partner Institute and Board Chair of Clareo Peter Bryant, the role of government and industrial policy cannot be overstated.

 “To date, the minerals industry has not prioritized shared prosperity effectively, resulting in a breakdown of trust with governments and local communities. However, the industry is at a turning point. Companies are taking on the responsibility of creating shared value, collaborating with new partners and at a deeper level. Government plays a key role in creating shared value by providing the springboards to investment and not being overly prescriptive,” he added.

 Global AI Corporation CEO Richard Rothenberg said: “As the demand for critical minerals continues to grow, policymakers and investors should prioritize sustainable practices, community engagement, and transparent governance to ensure long-term success and positive public perception.”

 The report also highlights the importance of policies centered on GDP growth, job creation, and export enhancement as essential for countries aiming to boost value addition.