Losses could rise to $380 billion this year if volatility increases, as corridors such as Strait of Hormuz become tools of geoeconomic pressure, ICC secretary-general says.

Uncertainty in trade led to a loss equivalent to $202 billion in global business investments last year, with losses potentially rising to $380 billion this year, the secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) said.

John Denton said the world is going through a period of structural transformation in global trade, with economic policy uncertainty now exceeding levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

“According to our ICC commissioned study by Oxford Economics, this uncertainty erased the equivalent of $202 billion in global business investment in 2025 alone, reducing investment growth to just 0.4%. If volatility intensifies, losses could double to approximately $380 billion in 2026,” he said. “For businesses, the core problem is unpredictability, a stop-start cycle of tariffs imposed, struck down, refunded and rebuilt under different legal authorities.”

“But beyond tariffs, the more consequential shift is the pursuit of geoeconomic objectives, with governments actively shaping supply dependencies, not simply regulating trade flows,” he noted, adding that corridors like the Strait of Hormuz have become tools of geoeconomic pressure. 

“What is unfolding there is not just an energy shock, but a simultaneous price and supply shock hitting fuels, industrial inputs, and food security at once,” he said.

Denton said the risks for the most vulnerable economies are “severe,” warning that the collapse of the multilateral system could result in a 33% decline in merchandise trade for developing countries and up to 43% losses in exports from low-income countries, citing ICC research.

He noted that the ICC represents businesses and professional organizations in more than 170 countries, voicing private sector concerns in global policy discussions. The organization released a report on trade, growth and employment following extensive consultations to offer proposals to resolve key issues.

“We also work on the ground to maintain critical trade flows, deliver practical tools and strengthen supply chain resilience — from digital trade corridors to SME (small- and medium-sized enterprise) access to finance. We believe that market access that cannot be operationalized in practice is economically equivalent to market access that does not exist,” he said.

Denton emphasized that the multilateral trading system is under pressure and that limited reforms are not enough.

“What is required is structural reform combined with pragmatic cooperation,” he said, adding that the time-bound World Trade Organization (WTO) reform process needs to be advanced.

“This means recognizing that progress may initially come through coalitions of willing members — what we describe as a form of ‘variable geometry’ that enables countries to move faster and farther where possible, while ensuring others can follow at their own pace. This approach complements, rather than replaces, the multilateral system,” he said. “At the same time, institutions must respond more directly to real-economy pressures.”

On the Strait of Hormuz disruptions specifically, Denton said the top priority should be diplomatic solutions to safeguard freedom of navigation, the safety of ships and crews, and food security — particularly through fertilizer and fertilizer raw material shipments.

He said the need for multilateralism is stronger than ever.

“Open, predictable and rules-based trade remains indispensable to economic security and resilience, and to restoring confidence in trade as a key engine of growth and jobs — the task now is to modernize global trade institutions so they can deliver on that promise in a far more complex and contested environment,” he said.

“ICC stands ready to work with governments and businesses around the world that are committed to acting on these solutions,” Denton added.