<\/p>\n
Accelerating trade digitalisation could add US$2.8tn to global trade annually by 2031, according to a new report from Standard Chartered and Oxford Economics.<\/p>\n
The research, part of Standard Chartered\u2019s 2026 Future of Trade report, assessed how faster trade digitalisation and greater geopolitical fragmentation could affect global trade patterns and macroeconomic outcomes.<\/p>\n
It found that international trade could be 6.9% higher in 2031 than it would otherwise be, compared with Oxford Economics\u2019 baseline forecast for that year, under a \u2018digital acceleration scenario\u2019 that modelled the impact of lower trade frictions, greater technology investment and faster AI adoption on global trade patterns through the next five years.<\/p>\n
Based on a survey of 2,100 senior corporate executives across 27 markets, the report found that businesses are adapting to a more complex trading environment by investing more in digital tools, AI and integrated financial infrastructure to improve visibility and reduce supply chain friction.<\/p>\n
Four in five corporates said they had benefited from investment in digital capabilities, while 83% said digital tools had helped them respond more quickly to supply-chain disruption, according to the survey.<\/p>\n
Oxford Economics research found that services trade stood to benefit the most from digitalisation. Digitally delivered services \u2013 including computer, cloud, cybersecurity and other remotely delivered services \u2013 grew 136% in exports between 2016 and 2025, compared with 70% growth in total goods and services exports. It also accounted for 14.7% of global exports in 2025, up from 10.6% in 2016.<\/p>\n
Under the digital acceleration scenario, services trade could rise 11.4% above baseline by 2031, almost double the 5.9% increase projected for goods, as \u201cbetter data flows, digital payments, interoperable systems and streamlined compliance reduce cross-border friction\u201d, the report said.<\/p>\n
AI adoption was set to be a key driver of this shift, with 56% of corporates rating it \u201chighly relevant or transformational\u201d to advancing trade digitalisation. That figure jumped to 62% among respondents in the technology, media and telecommunications, and energy sectors.<\/p>\n
Shift to supplier-focused strategies<\/p>\n
In addition to technology developments, the study\u2019s findings also pointed to a departure from the nearshoring and friendshoring trends of recent years as companies find different ways to respond to geopolitical disruptions.<\/p>\n
While more than nine in 10 businesses expected to adjust their supply-chain activities over the next three to five years, around 60% did not anticipate entering or exiting markets across sourcing, manufacturing or exporting.<\/p>\n
Instead, businesses are prioritising supplier diversification and inventory management to build resilience within their existing networks, with \u201csupplier-focused strategies\u201d gaining most momentum in the Americas (+8.7 percentage points) and Greater China and North Asia (+6.8 percentage points).<\/p>\n
Inventory management is also becoming a more important priority, particularly across the Asean and Mena regions.<\/p>\n
Treasury functions too are taking on \u201ca more strategic role\u201d as \u201clarger inventories, broader supplier networks and growing cross-border flows increase the need for digital tools, data visibility and AI-enabled decisions\u201d, Oxford Economics researchers found.<\/p>\n
Over the next three to five years, 37% of businesses plan to integrate treasury and supply-chain functions more closely, while the same proportion expects to adjust their treasury strategy.<\/p>\n
Currency-risk management was a priority for 57% of respondents, with one in three expecting their foreign-exchange exposure to increase.<\/p>\n
Some 82% said digital tools had improved visibility and forecasting across supply-chain and financial activities, while 74% said digital treasury tools had improved resilience in managing cash, liquidity and FX exposures amid ongoing uncertainty.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs businesses focus less on redrawing supply chains and more on increasing resilience, visibility and agility, investments in digital capabilities are becoming a critical source of competitive advantage,\u201d said Roberto Hoornweg, CEO, corporate and investment bank at Standard Chartered.<\/p>\n
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