<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s Corp. has sharply raised its forecast for South Korea\u2019s economic growth this year to 3.5 percent, citing a strong semiconductor cycle that it expects to continue through at least mid-2027.<\/p>\n
The rating agency forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.5 percent this year and 2.7 percent next year in a report following its periodic review of ratings of Korea.<\/p>\n
The 2026 forecast is 0.3 percentage point above the 3.2 percent average projection from eight major investment banks (IBs), according to the Korea Center for International Finance.<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s had forecast 1.8 percent growth in February and raised the projection to 2.5 percent in May.<\/p>\n
The agency attributed the latest upgrade to the semiconductor supercycle and strong exports. Korea\u2019s goods exports rose 51 percent in January-July from a year earlier, driven by robust semiconductor exports.<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s expects strong chip demand to continue, with few viable alternatives to Korea\u2019s leading memory suppliers.<\/p>\n
It also highlighted government projects targeting semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and physical AI, saying they could create new growth engines, boost productivity and raise potential growth.<\/p>\n
The agency expects Korea\u2019s fiscal deficit to reach 3.8 percent of GDP this year, 0.1 percentage point better than the government\u2019s initial target, amid stronger growth and continued revenue surpluses.<\/p>\n
It warned, however, that population aging, defense and security spending and investment to maintain export competitiveness could increase fiscal pressure without policy reforms.<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s previously assigned Korea an Aa2 sovereign credit rating, citing its policy effectiveness and economic strength, while flagging rising government debt and aging-related fiscal pressures as long-term challenges.<\/p>\n
The latest report was not a rating action and does not signal whether Moody\u2019s will issue a new sovereign rating for Korea in the near future.<\/p>\n
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