<\/p>\n
\u201cHad it not been for this shock, we would have been upgrading global growth,\u201d Georgieva says.<\/p>\n
The Iran war is darkening the outlook for the world economy \u2014 whether or not a fragile ceasefire holds, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned Thursday.<\/p>\n
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the fund will downgrade its forecast for the world economy next week.<\/p>\n
\u201cHad it not been for this shock, we would have been upgrading global growth,\u201d Georgieva said in remarks before next week\u2019s IMF-World Bank spring meetings. \u201cBut now, even our most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade.\u201d<\/p>\n
The world economy had proved resilient in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s decision to impose sweeping taxes last year on imports from most the world\u2019s countries. In January, the 191-country IMF had upgraded the global growth outlook to 3.3% and was poised to do so again when its new forecasts came out next Tuesday.<\/p>\n
But the war, which began Feb. 28, changed everything. The conflict has driven up the price of oil and natural gas; damaged oil refineries, tanker terminals and other energy infrastructure; disrupted shipments of fertilizer the world\u2019s farmers depend on; and damaged the confidence of businesses and consumers.<\/p>\n
The United States and Iran announced Tuesday they\u2019d reached a ceasefire.<\/p>\n
Still, Georgieva said Thursday that \u201cgrowth will be slower \u2014 even if the new peace is durable.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sub-Saharan Africa and small island countries are most vulnerable to the energy shock, Georgieva said. Around the world, governments have only a limited ability to support their economies with spending increases and tax cuts because their debts are already so high.<\/p>\n
She noted that many countries have taken steps to limit the damage from the energy shock such as urging or requiring people to work from home; encouraging more use of public transportation; and limiting travel by public officials.<\/p>\n
Georgieva pleaded that policymakers \u201cbe careful not to make things worse\u201d with \u201dgo-it-alone\u201d moves such as limiting exports and imposing price controls. \u201cDon\u2019t pour gasoline on the fire,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
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