<\/p>\n
The risk of a US and global recession this year have risen to 60% from 40% earlier on the heels of President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs, Wall Street brokerage JPMorgan said.<\/p>\n
Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the US and higher duties on dozens of other countries.<\/p>\n
“Disruptive US policies has been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” JPMorgan strategists, led by Bruce Kasman, said in a note on Thursday, adding that US trade policy has turned less business-friendly than anticipated.<\/p>\n
“The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified through retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions,” Kasman said.<\/p>\n
Other Wall Street brokerages, including Barclays and Deutsche Bank, also warned that the US economy faces a higher risk of slipping into a recession this year if Trump’s new levies remain in place.<\/p>\n
However, Kasman expects the shock of the tariffs to be “modestly dampened” by the prospect of further rate cuts in the US.<\/p>\n
JPMorgan reiterated its forecast of two 25-basis-point rate reductions by the Federal Reserve in June and September this year, while investors expect a total of four rate cuts in 2025, per data compiled by LSEG.<\/p>\n
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