<\/p>\n
GDP forecasts for U.S., world drop, inflation to rise, thanks to trade war.<\/p>\n
The outlook for global growth is dimming thanks to the trade war launched by the U.S., which will weigh on its economy, and the rest of the world, says Fitch Ratings. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n In a new report, the rating agency cut its forecast for world GDP growth to 2.3% this year, amid weaker expectations for the U.S. economy in both 2025 and 2026.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe new U.S. administration has started a global trade war that will reduce U.S. and world growth, push up U.S. inflation and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts,\u201d Fitch said.<\/p>\n For the U.S., the firm now expects just 1.7% growth this year, down by 0.4 percentage points from its previous forecast \u2014 with growth now seen slowing even further to 1.5% in 2026.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThese rates are well below trend and down from almost 3% annual growth in 2023 and 2024,\u201d it said, citing the impact of rising U.S. protectionism.<\/p>\n \u201cTariff hikes will result in higher U.S. consumer prices, reduce real wages, and increase companies\u2019 costs, and the surge in policy uncertainty will take a toll on business investment,\u201d Fitch said \u2014 while retaliation by other countries will hit U.S. exporters too.<\/p>\n \u201cModelling suggests tariff increases will reduce GDP by about 1 percentage point in the U.S., China, and Europe by 2026,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n Indeed, the global economy is seen staying weak next year, with GDP growth slipping to 2.2%.<\/p>\n The trade war will also spark recessions in both Canada and the U.S., Fitch said \u2014 reducing its 2025 growth forecasts for Canada and Mexico by 0.7 points and 1.1 points, respectively.<\/p>\n The outlook for Europe is also now weaker, Fitch said, despite expectations of fiscal easing in Germany, and China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cGermany\u2019s recent pivot to fiscal stimulus will do a lot to cushion the blow and will allow its economy to recover modestly in 2026. More aggressive policy easing will also help to offset the impact in China,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n U.S. monetary policy will also be affected.<\/p>\n \u201cWith the tariff shock estimated to add one percentage point to U.S. near-term inflation, we believe the Fed will delay further easing until [the fourth quarter of 2025],\u201d Fitch said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWe now expect the Fed to cut just once this year, but then expect three more cuts in 2026 as the economy slows and tariff levels stabilize,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n The revised outlook is subject to \u201chuge uncertainty,\u201d the firm acknowledged.<\/p>\n \u201cOur assumptions could be too harsh. But there are also risks of a larger tariff shock including from an escalating global trade war,\u201d it warned.<\/p>\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" GDP forecasts for U.S., world drop, inflation to rise, thanks to trade war. The outlook for global growth is dimming thanks to the trade war launched by the U.S., which will weigh on its economy, and the rest of the world, says Fitch Ratings. \u00a0 In a new report, the rating agency cut its forecast […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3613,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bez-rubriki"],"featured_image_src":{"landsacpe":["https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Global-economy-77-1000x445.png",1000,445,true],"list":["https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Global-economy-77-463x348.png",463,348,true],"medium":["https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Global-economy-77-300x210.png",300,210,true],"full":["https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Global-economy-77.png",1000,700,false]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3612","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3612"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3612\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3614,"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3612\/revisions\/3614"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3613"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/relinvestmentsgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}